Balance Capital Monthly Update - September

Greetings everyone.

Welcome to Balance Capital's September update.

Like the format? Anything I should change up for next month? Be sure to reply and let me know what you think. Grateful for your ongoing support.

September Quick Stats:

September Wins:

  • Broker Outreach Yielding Results:

    • My relationship-building activities with brokers in August paid off in September.

    • Notably, three separate brokers called me proactively about opportunities tailored to my profile, even before they listed those businesses publicly.

  • Direct Engagements with Business Owners:

    • Following my August goal to focus on getting more direct interactions with sellers, I successfully engaged with two owners in September.

    • Although I didn’t submit an LOI, these interactions were valuable because I got more practice honing my pitch to Sellers about why I’m a good fit to carry on the legacy of their business.

  • Enriched Search Community Connections:

    • The Self-Funded Search Conference in Dallas was excellent and helped me expand my network within the search community. More on that later.

September: Select Opportunities Reviewed

Please note: I'm committed to upholding the highest standards of confidentiality and respecting Sellers by only discussing information that has been publicly disclosed. For a deeper dive into how I evaluate these opportunities, please reach out to sign a mutual NDA.

34-Year-Old Landscape Maintenance Business

  • I evaluated a 34-year-old landscaping firm (60% residential, 40% commercial) that felt like a great candidate for a searcher:

    • $1M in EBITDA,

    • all “processes” were done on pen and paper,

    • decent recurring revenue base (38% under contract, 62% from maintenance customers),

    • a seasoned team (average tenure: 10+ years),

    • 100% word-of-mouth,

    • no customer concentration, and

    • very clear growth opportunities (from B2B maintenance to add-on services and M&A prospects).

I decided to pass on this deal because (i) 2023's financials (TTM) showed shrinking margins and much lower EBITDA, revealing vulnerability to the residential installation segment, and (ii) my valuation was ~20% below asking price (which was still 4x TTM EBITDA), but the broker held firm saying he had three "full-price offers.”

28-Year-Old HVAC Business: 

  • I reviewed a longstanding HVAC business that did 60% residential / 40% commercial work. It had an attractive valuation at 3.1x EBITDA, but was smaller than I normally consider ($500,000 in EBITDA).

  • The business had:

    • 200+ 5-star reviews,

    • experienced technicians,

    • a commercial service manager w/ 20+ years experience,

    • well-maintained vehicles (no immediate Capex needs), and

    • 20%+ EBITDA margins.

  • Drawbacks included:

    • Minimal recurring revenue (4-5%),

    • 25% new construction exposure,

    • only 15% in service/maintenance, and

    • $500K real estate included by the owners.

  • Comparatively, another HVAC firm with $1M EBITDA I looked at recently sold at 9x EBITDA. The allure here was entering at a low price, leveraging my HVAC experience, growing service/maintenance, eliminating new construction dependency, and boosting overall value.

I decided to pass on this deal because of (i) the size of the deal / owner dependency, (ii) new construction exposure, (iii) reliance on new installations vs. service, and (iv) my lack of desire to include real estate in this deal (which would have been required to win the deal).

September Learnings & Takeaways

  • Current Financials: Get Them Early. 

    • 2023 financials for the landscaping deal I liked revealed issues with sales, gross margins, and EBITDA.

    • Another company's 2023 EBITDA tripled from 2022; a challenge for bank underwriting and a red flag for sustainability (at least for that deal).

    • Key takeaway: In the future, always request updated financials early in the deal evaluation.

  • Moving Fast (Early) Sets You Apart.

    • There is a lot of competition for good deals right now.

    • My post-CIM communication is fast, but my progression to get a formal LOI submitted has been slow.

    • Strategy shift: For future deals, I plan to submit an early "indication of interest" (IOI) to set myself apart as a genuine buyer and quickly gauge whether the Seller and I are aligned on valuation. Here is my “template” IOI: Balance Capital IOI Template

  • Smaller Deals: A Double-Edged Sword. 

    • $750K to $1M EBITDA deals seem like the most attractive deals I’m reviewing right now.

    • These deals often have lower valuations and potential growth but come with owner dependency and less structure.

    • Challenge: these smaller deals tend to be more “owner dependent” and require a hands-on approach that I think would delay my ability to implement higher-level, strategic improvements to the business. But they are very tempting given the obvious growth opportunities!

Self-Funded Search Conference (Dallas, TX)

Biggest Takeaways from Conference:

  • Market Valuations Remain Steep: Despite higher interest rates, valuations remain stubbornly high with so many prospective buyers.

  • Creative Deal Structures Work: With high valuations, deals are still getting done but require creative structuring, including larger seller notes and/or more equity.

  • Patience is Key: We heard several stories of “deals gone bad” at the conference, highlighting the importance of good due diligence and finding a trustworthy Seller (integrity is important!)

  • Self-Funded Search is one of the best risk-adjusted ways to create wealth

    • 50% of investors in self-funded deals achieved 30%+ internal rates of return (IRR)

    • 1 in 5 self-funded searchers achieve net equity proceeds of $5M or more

    • See more insights from the full study here: SIG 2023 Self-Funded Search Study 

Where I Need Help

  • Deal Opportunities Feedback. I’ve highlighted a few opportunities that I reviewed this month. Anything stand out to you? I’d appreciate any feedback.

  • Smaller Deals or Bigger Deals? I would love to find a $1 - 2M EBITDA business that is going for under 5x EBITDA that doesn’t have major, obvious red flags. Do those exist right now? I’m struggling to find them.

Thanks / Shout Outs:

  • Aaron Blick. A big shout-out to Aaron, a founding partner at Search Investment Group (SIG). Beyond sharing invaluable insights as a panelist at the Self-Funded Search Conference, he generously carved out some personal time to help me & discuss a few challenges I was having in my process. Much appreciated, Aaron!

  • Christian Bowles. Christian exemplifies the spirit of a deal-maker. Instead of looking for reasons to say "no," he's always on the hunt for solutions, even if it means connecting me to someone else who can help. His proactive approach and readiness to assist at a moment's notice have been invaluable. I deeply appreciate his perspective and commitment to helping me. Thank you, Christian!